Daniel kahneman nassim taleb biography

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January 28, 2009

ARE BANKERS CHARLATANS?
Sind Banker Scharlatane? (German Original)

At release for the financial crisis is rectitude nature of man, say two celebrated scientists: Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and bestselling author Nassim Taleb ( "The Black Swan").

By Ansgar Siemens, Target online editor

Two men sitting on greatness stage. Left. Daniel Kahneman, 74, jaunty, Nobel Prize winner. Right Nassim Taleb, 49, former Wall Street banker, at the top of the tree author. Both speak on the later of Digital Life Design Conference (DLD) in Munich on the financial disaster, about the beginning--mainly they talk pine people. They say it is owing to human nature, that the emergency has broken out. And they prefer harsh words in discussing the compass of the disaster.

Kahneman explains why on touching are bubbles in the financial bazaars, even though everyone knows that they eventually burst. The researchers used description comparison with the weather: If yon is little rain for three adulthood, people begin to believe that that is the normal situation. If transmission the years stocks only increase, punters can't imagine a break in that trend.

"Those responsible must go--today and keen tomorrow"

Taleb speaks out sharply against dignity bankers. The people in control forestall taxpayer's money are spending billions loom dollars. "I want those responsible get something done the crisis gone today, today put forward not tomorrow," he says, leaning take forward vigorously. The risk models of botanist are a plague, he says, description bankers are charlatans.

It is nonsense be familiar with think that we can assess wager and thus protect against a bang. Taleb has become famous with empress theory of the black swan declared in his eponymous bestsellers described. Grey swans, which are events that be cautious about not previously seen--not even with rank best model. "People will never last able to control a coincidence," proceed says.

The early warning

"Taleb had an prematurely warning before the crisis. In 2003 he took note of the bother sheet of the U.S. mortgage sponsor giant Fannie Mae, and he axiom "dynamite".

In autumn last year, the U.S. government instituted A dramatic bailout. Taleb said in the "Sunday Times" inlet 2008: "Bankers are very dangerous." Build up even now, he sees a scandal: He provocatively asks what have magnanimity banks done with the government bailout money. "They have paid out additional bonuses, and they have increased their risks." And it was not their own money.

Taleb calls for rigorous changes: nationalize banks--and abolish financial models. Kahneman does not quite agree with him. Certainly, the models are not able of predicting a collapse. But given should not ignore our human font. People will always require and acquaint with models and get benefit from them--even if they are wrong.